Orlando Real Estate Radar: January 2026

Real Estate Radar Insights from Realtor Jakub Adamowicz – Your Guide to Orlando Homes

I'm thrilled to bring you this jam-packed report on the Orlando market as we kick off 2026. Picture Orlando not just as the theme park capital, but as a thriving metropolis where innovation meets magic—home to over 2.5 million people, boasting record tourism highs of 142.9 million visitors in 2024, and leading the nation in job (2.5%), population (2.7%), and GDP growth.

Whether you're a buyer hunting for that perfect family nest or a seller aiming to cash in on years of equity, this report is your educational toolkit: data-driven, fun to digest, and packed with insights from multiple angles.

Real Estate Rollercoaster

Imagine Orlando's real estate market as a rollercoaster at Universal—thrilling highs in past years, but now settling into a smoother, more predictable ride that's tilting buyer-friendly. As of January 11, 2026, we're seeing a balanced market with a slight edge for buyers, thanks to inventory levels climbing to around 13,400 active listings (up 50% YoY) and homes averaging 65-75 days on market (DOM), up from tighter times in 2024. This shift from the seller-dominated frenzy of the early 2020s means more choices and less bidding wars, but don't sleep on it—premium properties in hotspots still command strong prices, with median sales hitting $385,000 to $407,000 (up 5.2% YoY in some metrics, though value indices show softening). Zillow's Home Value Index (ZHVI) pegs the average at $368,928, down 4.4% YoY, signaling stabilization rather than a crash.

Key trends include moderating sales (1,820 homes sold in November 2025, down 22.1% MoM but resilient YoY) amid seasonal dips, yet with pockets of strength in luxury and new builds. Month-over-month, prices held steady or edged up 1.3%, while inventory dipped slightly from November's 13,528. From a national lens, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts a 10-14% rise in existing U.S. home sales for 2026, powered by mortgage rates easing to around 6% (potentially dipping to 3.4% by 2028). Florida Realtors echoes this, noting statewide momentum from population influxes (305,953 net new residents annually through 2030) and inventory gains. Polymarket's new housing prediction markets (launched January 2026 with Parcl) show bets favoring modest gains in Florida metros like Miami (70-80% odds for stability or slight increases by February), aligning with Orlando's outlook tied to robust economic drivers.

In essence, 2026 shapes up as a "goldilocks" year: not too hot (avoiding bubbles), not too cold (with steady demand from tourism and tech), but just right for strategic moves. Buyers, you've got leverage; sellers, focus on value-adds. With Orlando's unemployment at a low 3.7-4.3% and job growth leading the nation, the market's fundamentals scream opportunity—let's explore why.

Market Statistics

Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association (ORRA), reveals a resilient market with signs of cooling: increased supply easing pressure, but prices holding firm due to underlying demand. YoY comparisons show inventory relief from shortages, while MoM shifts reflect holiday slowdowns—think fewer showings amid twinkling lights. I've cross-verified across datasets (noting variances like sales vs. estimates) and used averages for balance. Educational tip: Metrics like ZHVI (Zillow's all-home estimate) often lag actual sales in hot segments, so blend them for the full picture.

Median Home Prices

Prices are like Orlando's weather—mostly sunny with occasional clouds. Overall aggregated median: ~$385,000-$407,000, reflecting segmentation where luxury pulls up averages.

• Overall: $385,000 (up 1.3% MoM; down 4% YoY from $400,000); Redfin reports $407K (up 5.2% YoY); Zillow ZHVI $368,928 (down 4.4% YoY).

• By Property Type (from ORRA and Redfin aggregates):

  • Single-Family: $415,000 (up 1.3% MoM; up 2% YoY)—family demand keeps these steady.

  • Condos: $255,000 (down 4% MoM; flat YoY)—affordable entry points, but sensitive to rates.

  • Townhomes/Villas: $340,000 (stable MoM; up 1% YoY)—popular for low-maintenance living.

Metric	Value (Dec 2025)	MoM Change	YoY Change	Insight
Overall Median Sale Price	$385,000-$407K	+1.3% (avg)	-4% to +5.2%	Stable core; luxury boosts sales data, values soften broadly.
ZHVI	$368,928	-0.5% est.	-4.4%	Algorithmic view—great for trends, but check comps for accuracy.
Median Listing Price	$406,550	Flat	Varies	Listings reflect seller optimism; actual sales often 97-98% of list.

Nuance: Discrepancies arise because ZHVI estimates all homes (including unsold), while sales capture motivated transactions—edge case: In booming areas like Lake Nona, sales outpace indices.

Average Days on Market (DOM)

• 65-75 days (Zillow: 40 pending; Movoto: 86; ORRA avg ~75; up 5-15 days YoY). Like a good theme park line—longer waits mean less rush, more negotiation room. Implication: Homes over 70 days often yield concessions; sub-50 in hotspots signal seller strength.

Inventory Levels

• Active Listings: ~13,400 (down 1% MoM from 13,528; up 50% YoY).

• New Listings: ~2,500 (down 20% MoM; down 2% YoY).

• Pending Sales: ~1,800 (stable MoM; up 5% YoY).

• Months of Supply: 7 months (up 20% YoY from 5.8)—balanced but buyer-leaning (over 6 favors buyers).

Sales Volume

• Homes Sold: ~1,800-1,820 (down 10-22% MoM from ~2,000-2,335; flat to up 23% YoY in segments).

• Absorption Rate: ~25% (moderate demand absorbing supply).

Price Per Square Foot

• $240-$246 (down 2-3% YoY; Redfin $246 down 2%). This levels the playing field—compare efficiency across sizes. Dip reflects affordability nudges, but up in luxury (e.g., $289 in Lake Nona).

Neighborhood Insights

Orlando's neighborhoods are like its theme parks—each with unique thrills, from tech utopias to historic havens. Drawing from Zillow, Redfin, and local reports, we'll dissect hotspots, price swings, and trends, noting variances (e.g., coastal softening vs. inland resilience due to insurance hikes). Growth stems from $50B+ in projects, but nuances include migration slowdowns tempering demand. Conflicting data? Older stock dips while new devs surge 5-10% YoY.

• Downtown Orlando: The urban pulse with condos, lofts, and walkability. Median ~$325,000 (up 2% YoY). Emerging as a hub with projects like Westcourt ($2B) boosting appeal—think "Manhattan effect" for young pros. Trend: Revitalization drives 3-5% resale gains; edge case: Parking woes for families.

• Lake Nona: Tech-medical mecca with Medical City fueling growth. Median $780,000 (down 1.3% YoY but strong at 8-9% demand rise). Hot for professionals; new infrastructure (hospitals, sports) points to appreciation. Nuance: Smart homes command premiums, but HOAs add costs.

• Dr. Phillips: Upscale oasis with golf, dining near attractions. Median ~$550,000 (stable YoY). Tourism-driven luxury makes it a seller pocket; family-friendly with top schools. Trend: Proximity to Disney/Universal enhances rentals—edge case: Traffic peaks.

• Winter Park: Historic gem with culture and A-rated schools. Median $547,500 (up 3% YoY). Steady demand from families; 6-7% growth makes it a safe bet. Insight: Larger lots yield quick sales; nuance: Renovated homes fetch 10% premiums.

Overall, inland hotspots like Lake Nona thrive on innovation, while downtown evolves urban—watch for 2026's "big bang" with $50B projects reshaping corridors.

Economic and External Factors

Orlando's economy is the rocket fuel behind its housing—leading U.S. metros in job (+2.5%, 37,500 added in 2024), population (+2.7%, +76,000 in 2024), and GDP growth. Key sectors: Tourism (record $133.6B impact, 142.9M visitors in 2024, supporting 464,000 jobs), tech (NeoCity semiconductors), healthcare (Medical City adding 6,900 jobs), and leisure/hospitality (+51.4% post-pandemic). Unemployment hovers at 3.7-4.3% (below national 4.2-4.6%), with labor force up 23,000.

Statewide, Florida's growth moderates to 1.5% RGSP by 2026, with population +305,953/year through 2030—but migration slows (from 972 to 789 daily net arrivals) due to costs. Interest rates at ~6.15% boost affordability, with Fed cuts to 3.4% by 2028. External wildcards: Hurricanes spike insurance (20-30% up), slowing coastal but favoring inland; tourism fluctuations from policies, yet 4.3% visitor growth projected FY 2025-26.

New devs ($50B+ like Westcourt) and AI boom add supply/jobs, but labor shortages persist. Polymarket bets on FL housing lean optimistic for modest gains. Implication: Strong fundamentals buffer uncertainties, but buyers should factor insurance (up due to weather)—edge case: Inland spots like Lake Nona more resilient.

For Buyers

Buyers, this market's your adventure playground with 7 months' supply—negotiate like a pro for 2-4% off list, especially on 70+ DOM homes (e.g., snag concessions worth $10K on a $400K buy). Strategies: Pre-approve at ~6% rates; FHA/VA for low downs (3.5%), or buydowns to lock lower payments. Prioritize growth areas like Lake Nona for 7-9% appreciation; inspect for updates to avoid pitfalls like high insurance. Opportunities: Seller-paid repairs/closings common; first-timers, use NAR guides for 30% income cap. Pitfalls: Overlook HOAs or migration slowdowns curbing competition. Example: A $385K single-family could yield equity gains amid job boom—contact me for tours and Zillow comps!

For Sellers

Sellers, stage your home like a blockbuster—price sharp to avoid DOM drags (overpricing cuts 70+ days, leading to reductions). Tips: Highlight pools/renos for standout appeal in 13,000+ listings; minor updates (curb appeal, energy efficiency) boost to 97-98% of list. Time for spring peaks (March-May) when tourism surges. Maximize: Virtual staging for online wow; avoid ignoring comps in softening spots. Mistakes: Neglect market data—NAR trends show strategy wins. Example: A $550K Dr. Phillips gem could fetch full with pro photos. Free CMA on my site—let's strategize!

Forecast and Outlook

Gazing ahead (data-backed, not crystal ball): Short-term (3-6 months), modest 1-2% price growth, 10% sales uptick, inventory stabilizing as rates ease to ~6%. Experts from Florida Realtors/Redfin predict "renewed momentum" with affordability gains, Orlando outperforming Miami/Tampa. Polymarket favors slight FL gains. Longer: Gradual 2026 improvement (2.8% state growth), favoring early buyers, later sellers. Uncertainties: Economic moderation (unemployment to 4.3%), hurricanes, tourism dips—but 32% pop growth buffers. Overall, optimistic for balanced activity; prep trumps panic.