Winter Garden Real Estate Radar: January 2026

Brought to you by Jakub Adamowicz, Realtor® jakubadamowicz.com | Unlocking Doors to Your Future in Windermere, Winter Garden & Orlando.

Winter Garden's market is showing signs of balance, with increased inventory giving buyers more options while sellers still benefit from steady demand in desirable areas. As of November 2025, the median sale price hit $675,000 (up 20.1% year-over-year per Redfin), but Zillow's Home Value Index (ZHVI) sits at $562,118 (down 4.3% YoY), reflecting a mix of actual sales and broader valuations. Homes sold rose 23.1% YoY to 48 units, but days on market (DOM) held at 50-51 days, indicating a slight slowdown.

Compared to last month, inventory is up (e.g., 662 active listings per local reports), shifting toward a more neutral market (3.8 months of supply). Nationally, NAR forecasts a 14% rise in existing-home sales for 2026 with 4% median price growth as rates ease to ~6%. Polymarket bets suggest stable U.S. home values for February 2026, with ~52% odds for the national median exceeding $418,000, though Florida faces insurance pressures. Zillow predicts modest ZHVI growth amid Central Florida's economic strength.

Market Statistics

Metric	Current (Nov/Dec 2025)	YoY Change	MoM Change	Source
Median Home Price (Overall)	$675,000 (sales) / $562,118 (ZHVI)	+20.1% / -4.3%	Stable / N/A	Redfin / Zillow
Median by Type: Single-Family	~$570,000-$679,000	+2.3% to +0.86%	Slight up	Local blogs / Haven
Condos/Townhomes	Lower, around statewide $410,000	Flat to down	N/A	Florida Realtors
Average Days on Market (DOM)	50-51 days	Unchanged	Stable	Redfin / Zillow
Inventory Levels (Active Listings)	662-690	+24%	Up modestly	Realty / Zillow
New Listings	135	N/A	N/A	Zillow
Pending Sales	Orlando area: Down in broader market	N/A	-4.4% (Orlando)	Florida Realtors
Sales Volume (Homes Sold)	48	+23.1%	Seasonal dip	Redfin
Absorption Rate	3.8 months	Balanced	N/A	Realty
Price per Square Foot	$238-$299	-0.63% to +1.17%	Stable	Redfin / Haven

Neighborhood Insights

Winter Garden's areas offer diverse options. Here's a quick breakdown:

• Downtown Winter Garden: Historic charm with premiums for Plant Street proximity. Median prices ~$700K+. Limited inventory, strong demand for walkable spots near farmers markets. Trends: Stable values, low sales volume.

• Horizon West: Growth hotspot with new builds. Median $583K (down 0.89% YoY), inventory up (e.g., 693 homes for sale). Hot for families; emerging amenities like parks boost appeal.

• Oakland Park: Desirable for lake access and community feel. Prices $500K-$1M+; low turnover. Trends: Steady, with golf-cart lifestyle drawing buyers.

  
  

Economic and External Factors

Central Florida's economy leads the state, with 2.5% annual growth projected through 2027 (UCF). Employment: Job growth at 1.4%, unemployment ~3.3% (below national 4.3%). Population: 225K-275K new residents statewide in 2024, fueling demand.

Interest rates: Fed cuts expected, with benchmark at 3.5%-3.75%; mortgage rates may drop to 6%.